Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells.
Watch for changing conditions with sun and warm temperatures.
Avoid traveling in or under large, open slopes, buried weak layers remain capable of producing large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday, west of Golden, a large naturally triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported on a northwest aspect in rocky, alpine terrain.
Avalanches like this continue to be reported every couple of days, and even bigger avalanches were occurring more frequently last week.
Looking forward, we are expecting persistent avalanche problems to become worse with rising temperatures and intense spring sun.
Snowpack Summary
15-30 cm of low density snow sits over sun crusts on south facing slopes, wind-affected snow at higher elevations, and small surface hoar crystals on settling snow elsewhere. In wind exposed terrain, new cornices and wind slabs have continued to form. With sunny skies and rising freezing levels, expect to see more moist or wet snow on the surface as the day goes on.
A widespread crust is buried roughly 80-120 cm deep. Weak faceted crystals and surface hoar above this crust are contributing to large avalanches across the province and continue to be the primary layer of concern here.
Additionally, the lower snowpack is mostly made up of weak and faceted layers.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Clear. No new snow expected. Light west or southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falls to valley bottom for a short period early morning. Treeline low around -7 °C.
Thursday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light west or northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2200 m. Treeline high around 0 °C.
Friday
Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 2800 m. Treeline high around 4 °C.
Saturday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3200 m. Treeline high around 6 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Avoid areas where the snowpack thins, like steep, rocky start zones at treeline and alpine elevations. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.
Stick to simple terrain features to minimize exposure to this problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
Lingering wind slabs could exist on north and east facing slopes around ridgelines. Small wind slabs could step down to deeper weak layers producing very large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2