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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2016–Jan 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

We're dealing with a complex snowpack at the moment. Now is a good time to make conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Intermittent flurries are expected to continue through the day with accumulations of up to 5cm forecast. Winds should be light from the south with a freezing level of 1000m in coastal regions dropping to 500m as you move inland. Friday: Partly cloudy with no precipitation expected. Freezing levels will fall to valley floor as strong outflow winds build through the day. Saturday: Weather will be dominated by cold outflow winds. Isolated flurries are possible with up to 5cm forecast for coastal areas.

Avalanche Summary

We received reports of several natural and skier triggered avalanches ranging from size 1-2 earlier in the week.  These avalanche release on the uppermost layer of recently buried surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

Between 5 and 30cm of new snow now covers a widespread layer of surface hoar. Warm temperatures are encouraging this new snow to settle into a slab while moderate southerly winds have loaded lee features. Below this the upper 100cm consists of at least 3 other distinct buried weak layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and possible thin sun crusts on some solar aspects. These deeper weak interfaces continue to produce variable results in snow pack tests. Although they appear to be gaining strength they're worth keeping on your radar a little longer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A soft slab is developing above a layer of surface hoar. Moderate southerly winds have also loaded lee features at treeline and in the alpine. I would continue to tread lightly until we get a good feel for how the snowpack is reacting.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4