Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

An active moisture stream will continue to bring moderate snowfall with locally heavy accumulations in the south of the region. Monday night: Up to 30cm of new snow / Extreme southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200m Tuesday: Moderate snowfall in the morning easing by mid-day / Strong southwest winds / Freezing levels at 800m Wednesday: Light snowfall with up to 15cm falling that evening / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 800m Thursday: About 10cm of new snow / Extreme southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200m

In recent days, a widespread natural avalanche cycle took place to size 3.5. These avalanches were triggered by loading from heavy precipitation, wind, and warm temperatures. Many avalanches failed within the recent storm snow, although numerous avalanches also failed on persistent and deep persistent layers. At lower elevations where precipitation fell as rain, loose wet avalanches to size 2 were also observed. With ongoing loading from new snow and wind, I expect ongoing storm slab activity with the potential for deeper destructive releases.

Ongoing heavy snowfall (with rain below approximately 1200 m) and extreme southwest winds continue to build fresh deep and dense storm slabs. A rain crust and/or surface hoar layer buried mid-January is buried about 100cm below the surface. This weakness became reactive with recent heavy loading, and has been responsible for much of the recent large avalanche activity. The November crust near the bottom of the snowpack is generally well bonded, but has woken-up in some cases with intense loading and warm temperatures throughout the past week. There is still potential for very large and deep avalanches.