Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 1st, 2012 9:12AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeLimited field observations and reports exist from this region. Conditions may be variable. It is important to be familiar with the snowpack and avalanche problems that may exist in your local mountains.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period
Weather Forecast
The recent weather pattern continues, with a very persistent deep low off the coast driving a moist, mild SW flow over the region. Moderate accumulations are expected through the forecast period, accompanied by moderate S-SW winds. Sunday: Fzlvl’s 1300 m, snow amounts near 5 cm, ridgetop winds S 20-30 km/hr, alpine temps -4.Monday: Fzlvl’s 1200 m, snow amounts 8-15 cm, ridgetop winds S 35 km/hr, alpine temps -4.Tuesday: Fzlvl’s 1300 m in the am then falling to 700 m in the afternoon, snow amounts up to 20 cm, ridgetop winds S 30 km/hr, alpine temps -5 falling to -8.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations have been reported.
Snowpack Summary
Continued pulses of light-moderate snow accumulations, and strong ridgetop winds. Storm slabs and new wind slabs will load a variety of weak surfaces. These surfaces consist of large surface hoar, a thin sun crust, surface facets. The new snow may have a poor bond to these underlying weaknesses. Below the surface, the mid-pack seems to be settled and bridging over the early Nov facet/crust. However, near the bottom of the snowpack under the crust exists large, low density faceted crystals.Snowpack tests from earlier this week showed sudden collapse ("drops") results on the early November facet/crust deep persistent weakness. Because this weakness is so close to the ground in most areas, associated avalanche activity will likely be limited to slopes with smooth ground cover (e.g. scree slopes, rock slabs, summer firn, glaciers, etc.). Be aware of triggering this layer from thin, rocky areas, this persistent weakness my be a low probability/ high consequence scenario.Below treeline the snowpack generally sits below threshold.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs and wind slabs are overlying a variety of weak surfaces. If there is a poor bond, natural activity is to be expected. Rider triggers are likely; especially on wind loaded lee slopes.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.>Heads up, freshly wind loaded features may be easily triggered>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Typical trigger points include shallow variable snowpack depths, and thin rocky areas. Difficult to trigger, but often result in very large and destructive avalanches. Suspect terrain: offers a smooth ground cover (scree, grassy, rock slabs etc.)
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 2nd, 2012 2:00PM