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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 22nd, 2016–Dec 23rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A few cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next few days but the damage is done by the winds.  Watch for hard windslabs in open terrain. Ask Santa for more snow... especially below treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Winds are expected to begin to back off tomorrow and we may see a weak pulse of snow move into the region over the next few days.  10-15cm is forecast by Christmas eve.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches were observed on Thursday. 

Snowpack Summary

Not much is changing out there at this time.  Our main concern at this time is the widespread hard slabs that should be expected in alpine areas.  These slabs are up to 50cm thick in some areas and are quite stiff so they have the ability to propagate across a terrain features such as a bowl or gully.  The areas where you may be able to trigger the weak underlying facets will be important to be aware of.  Avoid thin snowpack areas especially in steep or unsupported terrain.  Sheltered areas are the place to be but the problem is the snowpack below 2000m is still quite thin, or weak and facetted.  Happy hunting.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Stiff windslabs should be expected in all alpine terrain and specific terrain such as gullies and ridgelines at treeline.  Be aware of the potential for entire terrain features to be involved if an avalanche occurs.
Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3