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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 31st, 2015–Mar 31st, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Cooler temperatures should "lock up" the snowpack at lower elevations. Conditions are still more winter-like at high elevations.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with scattered flurries and possible snowfall accumulations of 5cm. The temperature should reach a high of -6 °C in the alpine. Winds will be out of the northwest at 30 km/h gusting to 70 km/h at ridgetop. Freezing level is expected to be1500 metres.

Avalanche Summary

Two slab avalanches have occurred in the past 48hrs on steep SE aspects in the alpine. These were both size 2.0 and likely triggered by warming and/or solar radiation. In addition, several loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were noted on all aspects at treeline and  below.

Snowpack Summary

A very light freeze occurred overnight at valley bottom, but treeline elevations remained above freezing through the night. Conditions are isothermal for much of the snowpack below 2300m. Crusts are also found at higher elevations on solar aspects, and these are breaking down during sunny periods and on very warm days. Isolated pockets of wind slab are found in alpine areas, particularly in lee and cross-loaded gully features. At upper elevations the basal weaknesses have been unaffected by the recent warm conditions and can still be triggered in steep and shallow snowpack regions.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Cooler temps and cloudy skies on Wednesday should lead to a dramatic reduction in loose wet avalanches when compared to recent days. However, when the sun shines it is intense, so be aware of rapid changes especially on solar aspects.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Pockets of wind slab are found in alpine areas in lee and cross-loaded features. New wind slabs that sit on previously formed crust layers could be more easily triggered.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Triggering of the weak basal layers is still a possibility, especially in steep and shallow snowpack features.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5