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Avalanche Forecast

Nov 30th, 2017–Dec 1st, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Columbia.

This forecast is based on very few field observations and a high level of uncertainty exists. A conservative approach to terrain selection is critical until more snowpack data becomes available.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Friday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 900mSaturday: Light flurries / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 400mSunday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at valley bottom with alpine temperatures dropping to about -11

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. A natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred on Thursday in response to recent wind and snowfall. The potential for human triggering of these storm slabs is expected to continue into the weekend.We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Between 30 and 45cm of new snow has fallen in the past few days. I'd expect reactive storm slabs to exist in wind-exposed terrain or in places where the recent storm snow has a weak bond with a series of crusts which formed in late November which lie up to 60cm below the surface.Another feature in the snowpack is a 3-5 cm thick crust which was formed around Halloween and can be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. This layer is generally stubborn to trigger; however, I'd be increasingly cautious of it in the north of the region where it may remain reactive. The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 200+cm in the alpine, 100-150cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks. We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent wind and snowfall has likely formed reactive new storm slabs. Storm slabs may be touchier in heavily wind-exposed terrain, or in areas where the new snow has a weak bond with underlying crusts.
The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2