Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2016 4:23PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

jonas hoke, Parks Canada

Waterton Lakes.

The snow we are receiving is breathing new life into the ski conditions, but is adding to the load on the weak interface formed during the New Years drought which will likely be slow to stabilize.

Summary

Weather Forecast

A low pressure system affecting the coast is pushing a series of weakening fronts inland. These will produce cloudy conditions with snow flurries through the weekend. Snowfall accumulations of up to 10cm is expected. Temperatures will be -12 Saturday morning and rising to just below 0 by Monday. Winds will be moderate to strong from the W-SW.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow has fallen since January 4th. This overlies: a melt-freeze crust in areas previously scoured be moderate to strong SW winds, surface hoar up to 6mm in size in locations sheltered from NW winds, and old surface facets. The middle and lower snowpack are well settled and currently giving no notable shears.

Avalanche Summary

An isolated size 1.5 natural avalanche was observed from a SE aspect below treeline. Ski cutting today produced several loose dry avalanches up to size 1.0.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to grow through the weekend.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Dry

Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Carry avalanche safety equipment on ice climbs in avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 18th, 2016 4:00PM