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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2016–Jan 18th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

The snow we are receiving is breathing new life into the ski conditions, but is adding to the load on the weak interface formed during the New Years drought which will likely be slow to stabilize.

Weather Forecast

A low pressure system affecting the coast is pushing a series of weakening fronts inland.  These will produce cloudy conditions with snow flurries through the weekend.  Snowfall accumulations of up to 10cm is expected.  Temperatures will be -12 Saturday morning and rising to just below 0 by Monday.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the W-SW.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow has fallen since January 4th. This overlies: a melt-freeze crust in areas previously scoured be moderate to strong SW winds, surface hoar up to 6mm in size in locations sheltered from NW winds, and old surface facets. The middle and lower snowpack are well settled and currently giving no notable shears.

Avalanche Summary

An isolated size 1.5 natural avalanche was observed from a SE aspect below treeline. Ski cutting today produced several loose dry avalanches up to size 1.0.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to grow through the weekend.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Carry avalanche safety equipment on ice climbs in avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1