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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 29th, 2021–Nov 30th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

New snow followed by heavy rain is Tuesday's recipe for rapidly changing and dangerous avalanche conditions.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Cloudy with increasing wet flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate southwest winds. 

Tuesday: Wet flurries transitioning to heavy rain in the afternoon; 30-50 mm accumulation. Strong south or southwest winds, increasing over the day and overnight. Treeline temperatures rising from around 0 to +4 over the day as freezing levels climb from 1400 to 2900 metres.

Wednesday: Heavy rain; 40 mm accumulation. Strong south or southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +4.

Thursday: Mainly clear. Light to moderate northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -4.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's forecast suggests we will see a rapid evolution of avalanche conditions over the day. Depending on freezing levels and snowline elevations, we could see substantial storm slabs form in the region's upper elevations before they are hammered by rain in the afternoon. A rapid transition from widespread touchy storm slabs to equally touchy wet loose avalanche conditions is expected to occur over the day. 

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain has affected the snowpack at all elevations. The current forecast suggests we may see 15-25 cm of new snow accumulate before Tuesday afternoon when heavy rain takes over and once again drenches the snowpack at all elevations.

Average treeline snow depths are around 80-100 cm with much of treeline and all but the uppermost below treeline elevations still below threshold depths for avalanches.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

New snow followed by a deluge of rain will breathe new life into wet loose avalanche problems on Tuesday. The more new snow has accumulated before the transition to rain occurs, the greater the danger will be.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Almost Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Forecast weather suggests a substantial storm slab problem could form with new snow before precipitation switches to rain on Tuesday. Fresh accumulations will shed from steep slopes increasingly easily as temperatures rise.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5