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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 10th, 2019–Feb 11th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Mt Hood.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions are developing at Mt. Hood as heavy snowfall combined with strong to extreme winds produce very large and reactive slab avalanches. The slab is developing above weak old snow sitting on a strong crust. Avoid all terrain where avalanches start, stop, or run!

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

A one-two punch of storm systems will impact the Mt. Hood area through the end of the day on Monday, bringing high snow loading rates and tremendous wind transport to form deep slabs and wind drifts. Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop from late Sunday night and increasing throughout the day on Monday. Safe travel may be found only in non-avalanche terrain and in lower-angle old growth trees.

Professions triggered 1-2’ wind slabs with slope cuts on west through southwest slopes in the White River Canyon at 5500 to 6500 ft on Sunday afternoon.

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis Coming Soon

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong to extreme winds will blow several 1-2 feet of new, low-density snow far and wide. Any wind-affected snow is likely to be reactive. Wind slabs may be very large and may form at any elevation, may cross-load slopes into the treeline band, and may run full path. The wind slabs will be sitting on faceted (weak) snow above a firm crust (sliding bed surface), which is a prime recipe for very dangerous slab avalanches. Stick to lower angle terrain in dense old-growth trees where safer conditions may be found.

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall will form a deep slab that will produce large natural and human-triggered avalanches. This slab may be reactive within the storm snow or on the new/old snow interface. The last storm snow buried surface hoar or near surface facets near and below treeline or a crust BTL and on sun-affected aspects. Areas that had weak underlying snow are most likely to produce large avalanches. Winds will keep the storm slab problem confined to lower-elevation sheltered terrain. Don’t be lulled into thinking that open slopes are safe at any elevation.

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1