Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Incoming snow will build fresh avalanche problems and increase the potential of triggering the persistent weak layer.
With plenty of early season obstacles still exposed in runouts, a ride in any avalanche would be a violent affair. Choose conservative terrain and enter your line with caution.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred Tuesday/Wednesday with heavy snowfall, turning to rain at lower elevations. Avalanches were propagating widely and running well into runouts.
Conditions at upper elevations remain prime for human triggered avalanches. There was a report of a remotely triggered size 2 avalanche at Balu pass on Friday. And some of our near neighbours are reporting being able to remotely trigger size 2 avalanches from up to 80m away!
Snowpack Summary
5-10cm of incoming snow will give totals of 15-30cm on top of the recent rain crust which exists up to about 2200m.
A weak layer of large surface hoar crystals persists down 60-70cm. This continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests and produce whumfing in untraveled terrain.
The base of the snowpack is made up of facets at upper elevations.
Height of snow at treeline is about 130 cms which is below average for this time of year. Watch out for early-season hazards!
Weather Summary
An incoming weather system has largely petered out over the Coast ranges, but will give our area snowfall and strong mountaintop winds overnight and into Sunday morning.
Tonight: Snow (5-10cm). Strong Southwest ridgetop winds. Alpine low of -9°C.
Sunday: Isolated flurries (~5 cm). Moderate SW wind. High -5°C.
Monday: Sunny periods. Light wind. Low -8°C, High -5°C.
Tuesday: Sunny periods. Low -8°C, High -5°C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A near surface crust (easily felt by pole probing) has stabilized the snowpack at lower elevations. Pay careful attention to when this crust disappears (around ~2100m). If there's no crust, there will be a higher likelihood of triggering a persistent weak layer buried by a dense 50+cm slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
Watch for fresh windslabs in lee features. These could step down to the persistent surface hoar layer, and produce surprisingly large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
Expect loose snow avalanches to run in steep terrain. These could gain significant mass once they have the momentum to scrub down to the crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2