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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 26th, 2020–Mar 27th, 2020
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Snowfall forecast for Friday may create heightened avalanche conditions on steep slopes.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, light southwest wind, freezing level dropping to 900 m, treeline temperatures reach -3 C.

Friday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of new snow, light southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1200 m in the afternoon, treeline temperatures reach 0 C.

Saturday: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of new snow, moderate southwest wind increasing to strong in the afternoon, freezing level climbing to 1400 m in the afternoon, treeline temperatures reach 0 C.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, 15-20 cm of new snow, moderate southwest wind increasing to strong in the late afternoon, freezing level climbing to 1300 m in the afternoon, treeline temperatures reach 0 C. 

Avalanche Summary

Slab avalanches are a concern on slopes with accumulations of new snow, especially in wind-loaded terrain. No recent avalanches have been reported, but mountain travel and field observations have been very limited over the past few days.

Snowpack Summary

The next low pressure system moves in overnight. 10-20 cm may accumulate by Friday afternoon at upper elevations. The new snow has the potential to form a new storm slab problem on steep slopes, especially where it has been drifted by wind. 15-25 cm of snow from earlier in the week covers a variety of snow surfaces including crusts, warm snow, and wind-affected snow. There is some uncertainty about how well the new snow has bonded to these interfaces. The snowpack is well-settled. Snowpack depths diminish rapidly with elevation, with 300-400 cm at treeline and no snow below 700 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

15-20 cm of new snow may accumulate in favored areas by Friday afternoon, forming unstable slabs in steep terrain. There is uncertainty about how well these slabs will bond to underlying interfaces.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2