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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 9th, 2018–Dec 10th, 2018
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Come on, Ullr, give us some snow! Early season hazards, at all elevations, need more snow on top of them to be less of a concern.

Weather Forecast

Increasing cloud today, with flurries beginning this evening and continuing tomorrow. Snowfall amounts will be less than 5cm. Light to moderate southerly winds at ridge-top and alpine high's of -7*C today and Monday. The first real pulse of snow is forecasted to arrive Tuesday, bringing 15-25cm, moderate/strong SW winds, and alpine high's of -6*C.

Snowpack Summary

The height of snow at Mt Fidelity is below average for this time of year; see the graph for more info. The main layer of concern is the November 21st surface hoar, which is down 25-40cm. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep solar aspects, where it overlies a crust.

Avalanche Summary

All is quiet on the avalanche front this past week, with no reports of new avalanches in the past 5 days. Groups have been riding steep, unsupported features on many aspects and only seeing minor surface sluffing.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This layer can be found at all elevations, but is spotty in its distribution. It will be most reactive in wind loaded areas and on steep solar aspects where the surface hoar sits on a crust.
Watch for shooting cracks or stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.Best conditions on sheltered northerly aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2