Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Kananaskis.
With the warm temperature and strong solar radiation, it is the day to keep it simple and stay away from larger slopes. The trees will also offer the best skiing.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Sunny and warm for Wednesday. The models are all showing that the temperatures in the alpine will reach up to +4c with 75km/hr winds from the NW. Wet loose avalanches can be expected on solar aspects.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were observed today but the winds are sure growing the cornices. Expect to see avalanche activity on Wednesday, especially on solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
This Wednesday will be the first real hot and sunny day. So expect the unexpected. We have a few things on our radar:
1. Expect wet loose avalanches on solar aspects
2. Stay away from cornices
3. The Dec 2 rain crust that we talked about in January is about 50cm off the ground and found below 2300m. This type of layer that was dormant for a while might wake up from the solar radiation and could produce a large avalanche.
Otherwise, all open areas at all elevations are covered with with some form of hard or soft wind slab or sastrugi(wind eroded snow). The trees still have the best snow until the heat gets to them..
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
- Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Be alert on all solar aspects
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornice failures are more frequent with heat and solar radiation
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5