Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2022 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wind Slabs.

Mikey, Avalanche Canada

Kananaskis.

With the warm temperature and strong solar radiation, it is the day to keep it simple and stay away from larger slopes. The trees will also offer the best skiing.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Sunny and warm for Wednesday. The models are all showing that the temperatures in the alpine will reach up to +4c with 75km/hr winds from the NW. Wet loose avalanches can be expected on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed today but the winds are sure growing the cornices. Expect to see avalanche activity on Wednesday, especially on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

This Wednesday will be the first real hot and sunny day. So expect the unexpected. We have a few things on our radar:

1. Expect wet loose avalanches on solar aspects

2. Stay away from cornices

3. The Dec 2 rain crust that we talked about in January is about 50cm off the ground and found below 2300m. This type of layer that was dormant for a while might wake up from the solar radiation and could produce a large avalanche.

Otherwise, all open areas at all elevations are covered with with some form of hard or soft wind slab or sastrugi(wind eroded snow). The trees still have the best snow until the heat gets to them..

Terrain and Travel

Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.

Problems

Loose Wet

Be alert on all solar aspects

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Cornice failures are more frequent with heat and solar radiation

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2022 3:00PM