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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2022–Jan 23rd, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://avalanche.ca/spaw/2022-01-20-spaw

There is a special avalanche warning in effect for our area.

Rising freezing levels and solar radiation may trigger another large avalanche cycle this weekend.

Minimize your exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

Battle of the Weather Models continue, as they can't seem to agree on freezing levels. Sunday will see a mix of sun and cloud with a freezing level up to 2300m (highest forecasted elevation) and an alpine high of -2. Winds will be from the West, 25-60km/hr. Freezing level will drop back down to valley bottom on Monday. No new snow in the forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm of recent snow now buries the Jan 20th (2-4mm) surface hoar. The Jan 11 (2-5mm) surface hoar is down ~70-90cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down ~1.5 - 2.5m. This layer came alive last storm and will be a lingering concern. Wind and warming temps will promote the formation of wind slabs along ridge lines and cross loaded features.

Avalanche Summary

Helicopter Avalanche Control on Saturday, just West of the Park produced several size 4 avalanches.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Thursday with a notable size 4 off of Ross Peak that ran into the Elephants Trunk in Loop Brook.

A widespread natural and artillery avalanche cycle occurred last Monday up to size 4, with some crowns over 2m deep.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Up to 35cm of new snow, combined with warm temps and strong gusty winds are building fresh wind slab. These may bury surface hoar or a preserved stellar layer and may be sensitive to human triggering.

  • Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

This layer has been recently active and in some instances has been enough to step down to the deeper Dec 1 curst/facet layer. Investigate the snowpack before committing to your line.

  • Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche
  • If triggered the persistent slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in very large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Dec 1 crust/facet layer woke up last Monday, resulting in numerous very large avalanches This is now a low probability / high consequence avalanche problem. It will be stubborn to trigger, but if it goes the results will be very large.

  • Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4