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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2017–Feb 15th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: North Columbia.

Tricky conditions are expected on Wednesday with warm temperatures continuing, strong winds in the alpine, and new snow/rain.  Use a conservative approach and avoid avalanche terrain during periods of rainfall.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A warm storm system reaches the interior on Wednesday morning. 5-10 mm of precipitation is expected during the day on Wednesday with freezing levels around 2500 m in the morning falling to 2000 m in the afternoon. Alpine wind is forecast to be moderate to strong from the southwest. Another 10-20 mm of precipitation is forecast for Wednesday overnight through Thursday afternoon. Freezing levels are forecast to remain around 2000 m on Thursday and alpine wind is forecast to remain moderate to strong from the southwest. Light precipitation is currently forecast to continue Thursday overnight and taper off Friday morning. Friday is forecast to be mostly dry and sunny with freezing levels falling to around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, natural loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were reported throughout the region from steep sun exposed slopes. A natural size 2 wind slab was observed on a northeast aspect at 2100 m failing down 40 cm. Explosives triggered a few slabs size 2-3 failing down 50-60 cm on the early February weak layer. On Sunday, a natural size 2 was observed on an east aspect at 1500 m elevation. Explosives triggered numerous storm slab avalanches size 1-3 in alpine terrain. On Wednesday, rain at lower elevations is expected to destabilize the upper snowpack resulting loose wet sluffing and potentially increasing the sensitivity of triggering persistent slab avalanches. In the alpine, new snow and strong southwest winds will likely form touchy new wind slabs. Wind slab avalanches have the potential to step down and trigger persistent slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow from last week has settling rapidly due to the recent mild temperatures. The snow surface is expected to have undergoing melting on Tuesday afternoon on sun exposed slopes. Recent strong winds from the south and west had redistributed the recent storm snow in exposed terrain forming wind slabs. The early February weak layer is typically down 50-80 cm and includes a sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes, faceted snow, as well as surface hoar on sheltered open slopes. This layer has remained reactive recently and has been the main sliding layer for most of the recent slab avalanche activity. The mid-December surface hoar/facet persistent weakness can now be found down roughly 150 cm. This weak layer has become inactive in the south of the region, but may still be lingering in the northern part of the region near Blue River and Valemount. This layer is expected to get tested during the current period of sustained warming.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer from early February down 50-80 cm remains reactive to human triggering in isolated areas. Smaller avalanches have the potential to step down to this layer.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable snowpack.Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Strong southwest winds, mild temperatures, and new snowfall are expected to form touchy new wind slabs on Wednesday at higher elevations.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

At lower elevations where the new precipitation falls as rain, expect sluffing from steep terrain features. Sluffs have the potential to trigger slabs on the slopes below.
If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2