Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 9th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Cornices and Loose Wet.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Another burst of warm conditions will keep the danger levels elevated on Wednesday. Conservative route selection is advised.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with sunny periods with no precipitation expected. Alpine temperature will reach a high of 0 C, with freezing levels climbing to 2100m. Ridge-top winds will be out of the west at 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h. Thursday will be slightly cooler, and then a weak system approaches the region on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet up to size 1.5 were observed today principally on solar aspects. Avalanche control on EEOR produced 5 avalanches up to size 2.0 that ran full path.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack is settling with warm temperatures. Surface snow went moist on all aspects at all elevations except for extremely sheltered and shaded North aspects. Crusts are likely to form by morning. Cornices are sagging, and if they fail they could produce sizable avalanches on the slopes below. Recently formed storm slabs and wind slabs are gaining strength and becoming less of a concern. The chief problem in the snowpack remains the Jan 6th interface of surface hoar/sun crust/facets. This layer is down 35 to 80cm and continues to produce shears in snowpack stability tests. If this layer is triggered, large avalanches are possible.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 6th layer down 35 to 80cm in the snowpack is still possible to trigger. Large avalanches can be expected if this layer is triggered.

Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Cornices

Cornices are sagging due to the recent heat. As temperatures climb Wednesday and/or solar radiation is significant, cornice failures may occur. Cornices failures could also trigger avalanches on the slopes below.

Good day to make conservative terrain choices.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Loose Wet

High freezing levels and solar radiation will lead to loose wet avalanches on solar aspects.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 10th, 2016 2:00PM