Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 9th, 2016–Feb 10th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Another burst of warm conditions will keep the danger levels elevated on Wednesday. Conservative route selection is advised.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with sunny periods with no precipitation expected. Alpine temperature will reach a high of 0 C, with freezing levels climbing to 2100m. Ridge-top winds will be out of the west at 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h. Thursday will be slightly cooler, and then a weak system approaches the region on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet up to size 1.5 were observed today principally on solar aspects. Avalanche control on EEOR produced 5 avalanches up to size 2.0 that ran full path.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack is settling with warm temperatures. Surface snow went moist on all aspects at all elevations except for extremely sheltered and shaded North aspects. Crusts are likely to form by morning. Cornices are sagging, and if they fail they could produce sizable avalanches on the slopes below. Recently formed storm slabs and wind slabs are gaining strength and becoming less of a concern. The chief problem in the snowpack remains the Jan 6th interface of surface hoar/sun crust/facets. This layer is down 35 to 80cm and continues to produce shears in snowpack stability tests. If this layer is triggered, large avalanches are possible.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 6th layer down 35 to 80cm in the snowpack is still possible to trigger. Large avalanches can be expected if this layer is triggered.

Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

Cornices are sagging due to the recent heat. As temperatures climb Wednesday and/or solar radiation is significant, cornice failures may occur. Cornices failures could also trigger avalanches on the slopes below.

Good day to make conservative terrain choices.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Loose Wet

High freezing levels and solar radiation will lead to loose wet avalanches on solar aspects.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2