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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 26th, 2016–Mar 27th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Solar radiation will rapidly cause a decrease in snowpack stability and cause the danger to trend towards HIGH.  Keep a close eye on temperatures and aspects you are travelling on.  Early starts and finishes are key.  Avoid being under cornices.

Confidence

High - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Sunday will likely be a carbon copy of Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds, warm temperatures and light SW winds.  The key thing to make note of will be the influence of the solar radiation on stability throughout the day.  Timing is everything... start early and be done early to avoid the periods when stability will be at its worst.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet slides out of steep solar aspects up to sz 1.5.  There were also 2 large sz 3's off of Mt indefatigable at occurred on an east aspect at 2700m.  Solar affect was likely the trigger. 

Snowpack Summary

Snow was becoming moist on solar aspects early in the day right up to the peaks.  Light winds out of the SW were helping to keep the snowpack on the other aspects cool but as soon as you hit 2000m moist surface snow was being encountered.  Solar aspects have a series of crusts in the upper snowpack that are producing avalanches on these interfaces as temperatures warm up.  Northern aspects still have a full on winter snowpack above 2000m which includes the dribs of snow over the past week, a thick mid-pack layer and then a weak facetted base.  Thin areas where you can trigger the thin weak base will be places to avoid....

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

New wind slabs out of the recent storm snow can be found at ridgelines, and in gullied features. 
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Avoid steep, open slopes.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets and the Jan 6th interface are likely to be triggered from thinner snowpack areas.  The sun is also waking up these deeper basal layers on solar aspects.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.>Avoid exposure to solar aspects overhead, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Loose Wet

Loose wet slides up to sz 1.5 on solar aspects as temperatures warm up.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2