Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2014 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Storm Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

We are not expecting the storm to be as vigorous as initially forecast, BUT backcountry travelers need to keep a close eye on localized conditions. The danger levels could easily spike to HIGH if more snow falls than we expect.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

10 to 15cm of snow expected on Thursday with westerly winds near 85km/h. Friday will also see 5 to 10cm of new snow and strong winds. Temperatures should range between -6 and -10 degrees for the next two days.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new observed.

Snowpack Summary

4cm of Hn in past 24hrs. Wind slabs are present in Alpine and Treeline areas on North, East and South East aspects. The basal weak layers from October are still the principal concern in the snowpack. Full depth avalanches are possible.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches could step down to the basal layers and involve the entire winters snowpack, especially in shallow snowpack areas. The approaching storm will add load to this weak layer and could lead to increased avalanche activity.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Storm Slabs

Moderate snowfall and strong West winds on Thursday will lead to storm slab formation on lee and cross-loaded features.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depth>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2014 2:00PM