Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 29th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada wlewis, Avalanche Canada

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Avoid all avalanche terrain, natural avalanche activity is expected on Sunday with continuous heavy snowfall. 

Widespread storm slabs will form over a smooth crust, and weak surface hoar crystals. 

Summary

Confidence

High - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

A front stalls across the coast Saturday night, bringing heavy snowfall and wind before moving on Sunday afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud with strong southwest winds. Snowfall begins, bringing 10-20cm by morning. Freezing levels around 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with strong southwest winds. Snowfall continues, 40-60 cm by Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels remain below 1000 m, alpine high of +1. 

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Isolated flurries possible. Winds switch to moderate from the northwest. Freezing levels drop below 1000 m. 

TUESDAY: Scattered cloud. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Freezing levels around 500 m. Alpine high of 0. 

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural activity is expected as a result of the heavy precipitation forecast for Sunday. 

Observations are limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy precipitation falls over a thick crust that extends to mountain top. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crusts are breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak and faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack is bonding well to these layers. The middle and lower snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and several hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Expect naturally triggered storm slabs as new snow is overlying a smooth crust. Travel is avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Almost Certain

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Jan 30th, 2022 4:00PM