Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Timing, track and intensity of the incoming storm are uncertain. Be ready to change plans if you see the conditions change through the day on Saturday.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Ridgetop winds increasing to strong from the south by the morning. Freezing level mostly at valley bottom. Alpine temperature around -5 °C.

Saturday: Cloudy. 0-7 cm of snow expected, possibly up to 15 cm around Kitimat. Strong south ridgetop winds, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to between 500 m and 1000 m in the southern half of the region. Alpine high around -5 °C.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. 2-10 cm of snow expected overnight, and another 5-15 through the day. Strong south ridgetop winds, trending to extreme southwest at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 750 m. 

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Around 5 cm of snow expected overnight, and another 2 cm through the day. Variable light winds. Freezing levels around 1000 m.

No new avalanches were reported before 4 pm on Friday.

On Thursday, a professional operation east of Stewart reported two large avalanches triggered by natural ice fall in steep terrain. Otherwise, most avalanches reported in the region were small natural loose dry avalanches in steep and/or sun exposed terrain.

On Wednesday, professional operations around the region were reporting small, natural, loose dry avalanches in steep terrain, and small, rider triggered windslab avalanches on isolated features.

On Tuesday, professional operations west of terrace reported a few natural, cornice triggered windslab avalanches up to size 2.5 in the alpine. There were also isolated reports from around the region of natural windslab avalanches up to size 2, and natural and rider triggered sluffing and loose dry avalanches up to size 2 in steep terrain. 

5-15 cm of new snow is forecasted to fall through the day on Saturday with strong southerly ridgetop winds. These winds are likely to redistribute this new snow snow, and 10-30 cm of recent, low density snow. Expect reactive windslabs to form on lee slopes over a variety of old, generally wind effected surfaces. In sheltered areas, this new snow could be falling on surface hoar up to 10 mm, so we'll be keeping an eye on this potential weak layer as the snow load above it increases.

The upper snowpack appears to be starting to bond to the mid February rain crust, but we are not ready to completely trust that bond until it has weathered some significant warming or precipitation. 

Depth of the mid February rain crust is quite variable across the region, from 20-100 cm, and can even be found on the surface in very wind exposed terrain. This obvious, 10-30 cm thick rain crust beneath the recent snow effectively caps the underlying snowpack, making human triggering of avalanches on deeper weak layers very unlikely.

• Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
• Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.