Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
Stormy conditions will rapidly increase avalanche danger, with a natural cycle expected over the coming days. Danger may be a step less for the far east of the region, but use extra caution if you find more than 15 cm of new snow.
Summary
Confidence
High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm with local enhancements possible, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm with local enhancements possible, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.
SATURDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 60 to 80 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1200 m.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 60 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
Many small wind slabs were triggered naturally and by riders on Wednesday.
Natural and rider-triggered avalanche activity is expected to spike during Friday and into the weekend. Large avalanches are expected in areas where the buried surface hoar described in the Snowpack Summary exists. Avoidance of avalanche terrain is your best bet for having a safe day.
Snowpack Summary
Upwards of 40 cm of storm snow is forecast to accumulate by the end of Friday, rapidly forming storm slabs in most areas and wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong wind. These slabs will be particularly touchy where they sit on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. We've received indication that the surface hoar is likely most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns.
The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded. The base of the snowpack is expected to be weak and faceted in shallow, rocky slopes east of the divide.
Terrain and Travel
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Around 20 to 40 cm of snow or even more in localized areas is forecast to accumulate over Friday. This snow will rapidly form storm slabs in sheltered areas and wind slabs in wind-exposed terrain. The snow will be particularly touchy where it is loading a layer of surface hoar crystals, which is most likely found in openings at and below treeline. Large, wide-propagating avalanches will result where this layer is present.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 4th, 2022 4:00PM
