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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2013–Feb 15th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

As storm snow starts to settle into a slab, a weak layer of surface hoar down 40 cm will become increasingly more reactive to human triggering.  After such a long period of good travel in the mountains, now is the time to make conservative choices.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will linger over the area today, with an approaching warm front bringing the possibility of light precipitation later today, and some cloud.  Sunny breaks could result in strong solar radiation on solar aspects.  Watch for local warming on steep sunny slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow from two days ago has been transported by strong winds to create a soft slab in the alpine and treeline.  This storm slab, which is 20-40 cm thick, overlies a layer of surface hoar, formed on Feb. 12.  It is best preserved and most reactive, between 17-1900 m.  It is very touchy on solar aspects where the surface hoar sits on a sun crust

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, field teams remotely triggered size 2 avalanches from 100 meters away.  They also reported shooting cracks and wide propagations, even in low angled terrain below treeline.  Backcountry skiers also reported "touchy" conditions up Connaught Creek and MgGill Shoulder (a solar aspect).  This layer is proving to be easily triggered by skiers

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm snow is easily triggered by skiers. It is still a soft slab in most places, but has the potential to propagate widely on a touchy layer of surface hoar.  Below treeline, open glades may be very reactive.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

The presence of hard wind slabs in the alpine is likely based on the high to extreme winds that affected the area in the past few days.  While the nature and extent of these slabs is uncertain, it is wise to watch for them in wind exposed areas.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2