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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 10th, 2015–Jan 11th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Conservative decision making is still required given our present avalanches problems.

Weather Forecast

Conditions will stay cloudy today with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of precipitation. Expect an alpine high of -2 and westerly winds in the light to moderate range. A ridge of high pressure will begin to dominate the weather pattern for the next several days, although it will remain mostly cloudy until Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

A sun crust up to 2cm thick is present on steep solar aspects. Recent storm snow has settled to a 45cm soft slab. The storm slab bond to old snow is strengthening, but planar failures are present in stability tests. The December 17th surface hoar on crust layer is down 80-100cm. This layer remains reactive to skier loads on unsupported features.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity has tapered off since the storm the last storm cycle. A skier controlled avalanche size 1.5 occurred on Thursday on the December 17th surface hoar layer, buried down 60-80cm. This layer has been most reactive around treeline.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

This layer has settled into a 40-50cm slab. The bond to old snow continues to improve, but human triggering is still possible in the right location. Use caution on steeper wind loaded features at treeline and above. Note slab changes as you travel.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 17 instability is still active and can be triggered by human loads on convex rolls and steep terrain. The surface hoar sits on a thick crust, providing a bed surface for larger avalanches. This layer is widespread at treeline.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3