Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2016–Mar 18th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Don't let the beautiful day lure you into complacency. Although temperatures are expected to stay cool, the strong solar packs a punch. Stay vigilant. If avalanches are triggered they are likely to be BIG!

Weather Forecast

Today should be mostly sunny. Alpine temps are expected to reach -5 with light N'ly winds hopefully helping to keep the snowpack cool. Although the strong solar may still destabilize the snowpack. Friday and Saturday are expected to be a mix of sun and cloud, with freezing levels gradually rising to 1800m by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Convective flurries over the past week have added to the storm slab, with 30-50cm overlying a crust on solar aspects. Persistent weak layers from February are down 70-120cm and are of most concern on solar aspects. On northerly aspects the snowpack has less layers of concern, although on lee features in the alpine buried windslabs may exist.

Avalanche Summary

There was less solar than expected yesterday, but when the sun peaked out it triggered small loose avalanches. In the region a size 2.5 avalanche was triggered by skiers on a S'ly aspect, failing on the crust down 1m. Size 2-4 natural avalanches occurred on S'ly aspects, while on N'ly aspects a few size 1.5-2 slabs occurred on windloaded features.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Tests, and recent avalanches in the region, continue to show that a layer down 75 to 100 is triggerable by light loads (that's you). If triggered this layer is likely to propagate into large avalanches. This layer is of most concern on solar aspects.

Minimize exposure to steep, planer south facing Alpine slopesChoose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Storm Slabs

A 30-50cm deep storm slab has formed. It is expected to become increasingly reactive due to the strong solar. In addition, on solar aspects it overlies a sun crust which provides a sliding surface. On lee, N'ly slopes soft windslabs may exist.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices exist on many ridges. Rapid changes, from very cold overnight to being beat on by strong solar may cause them to fail. A falling cornice is likely to trigger deeper layers and cause large avalanches.

Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3