Today's warm storm will overload the Dec 2 weak layer. An avalanche cycle is highly likely. The ski hill will be a better place to head today.
Summary
Weather Forecast
The warm, wet storm has arrived and it is bringing upwards of 35cm of snow. Freezing levels will rise, spiking mid-day between 1500-2000m. Strong W winds will accompany the storm. A smaller pulse is expected for Wednesday, to add one more punch to the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
The widespread Dec 2 surface hoar layer is down 30-65cm and is reactive to human loading. Early November surface hoar layers were also reactive in snowpack tests yesterday, popping off with heavy loads. These test results suggest with a heavy enough load, avalanches could step-down and become much larger.
Avalanche Summary
A natural cycle is underway, with numerous size 2 to size 3 avalanches observed along the highway corridor last night and this morning. Yesterday, field teams were able to easily ski-cut size 1 soft slabs from unsupported features, especially below 1700m
Confidence