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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2014–Jan 2nd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

This forecast is based on very limited information. If you are out in the mountains and have any observations, please email [email protected]

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

The storm system will ease on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. On Friday a ridge of high pressure will build and dry conditions are expected on Saturday.Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud, light flurries possible, freezing levels 300-500m, light to moderate W-NW ridgetop windsFriday/Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -10, light to moderate NW ridgetop winds

Avalanche Summary

No new activity has been reported.

Snowpack Summary

The past week has brought around 60-70 cm of storm snow with steady strong W-SW winds and fluctuating freezing levels. The most recent storm snow came in with rising temperatures and is likely "upside down" feeling, meaning more dense on top. Expect touchy wind slabs in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded features well into treeline. A number of rain crusts may exist in the upper and mid snowpack, primarily below 1500 m. Deeper in the snow pack a layer of facets/surface hoar formed in early December may be found in the top 100cm in the Ashman area. The mid and lower snowpack is still structurally weak and faceted. Depth hoar and an early season crust exist near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Around 30-40cm of new snow has fallen since Sunday.  Expect increased hazard in areas where wind slabs have formed such as exposed lee slopes and cross-loaded terrain.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weaknesses may still exist near the base of the snowpack and could be triggered from thin spots or by continued loading from new snow and wind.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5