Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada kdevine, Avalanche Canada

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Avoid avalanche terrain at upper elevations where it has not been raining as storm slabs are likely widespread.

At lower elevations where it has been raining, be aware of the potential for wet loose avalanches. 

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Rain and wet snow 15-30 cm/mm / southwest wind 60-80 km/h / alpine low temperature near 2 / freezing level 1400 m

SATURDAY - Rain and wet snow, 40-80 cm/mm with another 60 cm/mm overnight / southwest wind, 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near 3 / freezing level 1400 m

SUNDAY - Flurries, 10-15 cm / west wind 30-50 km/hr / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 800 m

MONDAY - Wet snow, 10 cm / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 1 / freezing level 1200 m

Avalanche Summary

Slab avalanche activity is expected at upper elevations where the precipitation is falling as snow.  

Wet loose avalanches may occur at lower elevations where the snow has been soaked by rain.

There were a few size 1-2 explosives triggered avalanches reported in the North Shore mountains on Thursday.

There were numerous avalanches up to size 1.5 reported in the North Shore mountains during the storm on Wednesday. It is likely that a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred throughout the region on Wednesday as well, especially at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Depending on elevation, the region may see between 50-110 cm of snow, or 50-110 mm of rain between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. It is likely that this precipitation will fall as rain on all but the highest terrain.

This will bring recent fresh snow amounts at upper elevations to as much as 200-250 cm, and the new snow sits on a crust in many areas, and may also sit on surface hoar in some places. At lower elevations, the snowpack will be rain-soaked.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Heavy, wet snow will likely create widespread and reactive storm slabs at upper elevations

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Rain on snow at lower elevations may create conditions for wet loose avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2021 4:00PM