Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

The warm front associated with the weekend storm has delivered surprisingly little precipitation to the Purcells. The ridge of high pressure that has been keeping the precip out slides to the south Sunday night allowing a cold front to impact the area Monday. I expect 5 - 10 cm out of this wave. Winds will switch from the W to NW late in the day Monday with enough oomph to create yet another round of windslab avalanche activity. Expect 1500 m temps to be near 0 C. A ridge of high pressure moves in Tuesday which should break up the cloud cover and provide some good visibility.

A skier was killed in a size 3 avalanche in the Molar area of the Dogtooth range near Golden on Friday. The 4th skiers on the slope triggered the slide. On Saturday a skier triggered a size 3 avalanche in the alpine, the crown averaged 100cm in depth & the avalanche was reported to have run full path. The group had been skiing in the area all day without result until the accident happened.

The latest batch of storms has delivered around 50 cm of snow to the region. In some locations the new snow rests on top of a surface hoar layer buried January 3rd. Strong southwesterly winds have redistributed the new snow into windslabs that can be found on NW through SE facing slopes at and above treeline. Widespread crossloading is present throughout the region. A rain / melt/freeze crust formed by recent warm temperatures can be found as high as 1600m. The mid-December surface hoar layer continues to be a player, it's now buried 80 - 140 cm below the snow surface. Very weak snow near the ground is also a concern and while it has not been reactive recently, triggering a full depth avalanche near the ground is within the realm of possibilities right now.