Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2018 3:58PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

New storm snow will add to the complexity of an already tricky snowpack. Looks like a good day to make conservative terrain choices.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night: 10-15cm of new snow / Strong southwest winds / Alpine temperature of -9Wednesday: Generally overcast skies / Moderate northwest winds / Alpine temperature of -13Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries / Light and variable winds / Alpine temperature of -17Friday: Overcast skies / Moderate northwest winds / Alpine temperature of -10

Avalanche Summary

In Rogers Pass on Monday, skiers remotely triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanche from 40 m away on a south-facing, cross-loaded slope at 2600 m. On the same day, a helicopter remotely triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche on a similar aspect/ elevation in the Selkirks a little closer to Revelstoke. Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity is becoming less frequent, these avalanches point to the continued reactivity and destructive potential of these layers. Recently formed wind slabs to size 2 were also ski cut in exposed, higher elevation terrain, and a few natural cornice falls to size 3 have also been noted.Looking forward, expect a new round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind on Tuesday night. Storm loading has the potential to re-activate deeper, more destructive persistent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

By Wednesday morning I would expect up to 30cm of new snow. Forecast strong ridgetop winds are expected to redistribute the new snow into much deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. The new snow will overlie older wind slabs at higher elevations and a rain crust below 1600m.Below the snow surface several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack. In the top 1.5-2.5 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or the other of these on all aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below treeline.Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
New snow and wind will form touchy storm slabs. These slabs will cover a variety of old surfaces including extensive wind slabs at upper elevations and crusts on solar aspects and at lower elevations.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Several troublesome layers exist in the snowpack and may be reactive to large triggers such as a cornice or storm slab release. Human triggering may also be possible in shallow or thin, rocky areas.
Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2018 2:00PM