Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Tuesday Night: 10-15cm of new snow / Strong southwest winds / Alpine temperature of -9Wednesday: Generally overcast skies / Moderate northwest winds / Alpine temperature of -13Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries / Light and variable winds / Alpine temperature of -17Friday: Overcast skies / Moderate northwest winds / Alpine temperature of -10

In Rogers Pass on Monday, skiers remotely triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanche from 40 m away on a south-facing, cross-loaded slope at 2600 m. On the same day, a helicopter remotely triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche on a similar aspect/ elevation in the Selkirks a little closer to Revelstoke. Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity is becoming less frequent, these avalanches point to the continued reactivity and destructive potential of these layers. Recently formed wind slabs to size 2 were also ski cut in exposed, higher elevation terrain, and a few natural cornice falls to size 3 have also been noted.Looking forward, expect a new round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind on Tuesday night. Storm loading has the potential to re-activate deeper, more destructive persistent weak layers.

By Wednesday morning I would expect up to 30cm of new snow. Forecast strong ridgetop winds are expected to redistribute the new snow into much deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. The new snow will overlie older wind slabs at higher elevations and a rain crust below 1600m.Below the snow surface several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack. In the top 1.5-2.5 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or the other of these on all aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below treeline.Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.