Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Saturday: 5-10 cm snow. Light to moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine temperature near -10. Sunday: 5-10 cm snow. Moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -7.Monday: 10-15 cm snow. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -1.More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle was observed on Wednesday, with a few more occurrences on Thursday. Avalanches were storm slabs (up to size 2.5) and persistent slabs (up to size 4), running on all aspects and elevations. Although the natural avalanche cycle is diminishing, human triggering will remain likely and avalanches could be surprisingly large due to the structure of the snowpack.

The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring.60-90 cm of storm snow sits on a crust and/or surface hoar layer from mid-January. The crust is reportedly widespread, with the possible exception of high elevation north aspects. The mid-January surface hoar is 5 to 20 mm in size and was reported at treeline elevations and possibly higher. The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is 80 to 100 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is found at all elevation bands. Snowpack tests show sudden fracture characters and signs of instability such as whumpfs, cracking and avalanches. Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 100 to 150 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line. A rain crust buried in November is generally 150 to 200 cm deep.