Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 23rd, 2020 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

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Avalanche conditions will become increasingly dangerous as snow accumulates at lower elevations.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Rain transitioning to snow as freezing level drops from 2000 to 1400 m, 30 mm of rain or potentially 20 cm of wet snow at treeline, strong wind from the south, treeline temperatures around +1 C.

FRIDAY: 10-20 cm of wet snow above 1000 m, rain below, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around 0 C.

SATURDAY: Scattered rain showers and wet snow flurries with 5-15 cm of snow above 1000 m, light wind from the south, treeline temperatures around 0 C. 

SUNDAY: Brief clearing in the morning with treeline temperatures jumping to +3 C before temperatures drop and the next system arrives in the afternoon bringing heavy snow and wind.

Avalanche Summary

As heavy rain transitions to snow overnight expect thick storm slabs to form above treeline and a mix of storm slabs and wet loose avalanches at treeline and below treeline elevations. There is uncertainty about the amount of rain versus snow at each elevation band.

Snowpack Summary

Wet snow will begin to accumulate Friday morning as the freezing level drops. This snow will either create touchy wet loose or storm slab avalanches for the duration of the storm. Rain earlier in the week created a strong and settled snowpack, which is now 250-300 cm deep around the peaks of the North Shore mountains.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Thick storm slabs could form rapidly overnight as the freezing level drops.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Rain and wet snow will cause heavy wet loose avalanches in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 24th, 2020 4:00PM