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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 24th, 2019–Dec 27th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=

We are through the storm and natural activity has tapered off, but the potential for large avalanches running to the valley bottom remains. These could be triggered by cornices, small avalanches or humans in the wrong spot.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Light winds and a mix of sun and cloud for christmas. Alpine high -9

Thursday: Cloudy with west winds increasing through the day and a mild inversion forming.

Friday: Continued inversion with flurries and strong NW winds.

Snowpack Summary

There is a highly variable snowpack across the forecast region. Generally the snowpack is wet and thin below 1800m capped by a met freeze crust. Above that, the Cameron Lake area received  85-100cm since Thursday. This sits on a weak facet/crust combo that is now down 150cm. The front ranges hold a thinner more wind affected snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural cycle occurred this past weekend, with avalanches to size 2 in the storm snow and some larger ones failing on deep persistent weak layers. A size 3 natural avalanche occurred on Mt Bertha early Sunday morning covering the Bertha Falls trail in debris, and a similar avalanche was seen on Mt. Crandell.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

As natural activity on this layer begins to slow down, it is tempting to believe the problem has passed. This layer could still be triggered by people in thinner snowpack areas, or by large triggers including cornices or smaller avalanches.

  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs will be thicker and more reactive the higher you go. Snow amounts change dramatically above 1800m.

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2