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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2015–Jan 14th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche activity has dropped off significantly but there are still wind slabs that could produce significant avalanches.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Forecast models show no precipitation for the region until Thursday afternoon when a pulse of Pacific moisture is scheduled to arrive. Freezing levels will stay around 600m throughout out the forecast period, but an above freezing layer will pass through the region on Wednesday.  Winds will be light from the  S-SW until the Pacific moisture arrives, then bump up to moderate and strong on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

A thick crust is the most dominant feature in the snowpack above 1500 metres with breakable crust below that. There are a variety of layers previously mentioned in snowpack discussions, but unless there is an extreme weather event, they are likely to remain out of the picture . Some areas have reported 5cm of soft snow in sheltered areas above 1800metres, and one reporting party has observed 8mm surface hoar development on North apsects around ridgetops.  One operator has reported a Jan 4th surface hoar that may now be buried by as much as 20 to 40 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The snowpack is static for the time being with the only concerns being treeline and above where there may be lingering wind slabs
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Be aware of thin areas where human-triggering may be possible and may propagate to deeper instabilities.>Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 5