Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Storm Incoming!!
Heavy snowfall and strong winds will drive up avalanche hazard throughout the day.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Loose/dry surface sluffing has been easily triggered by riders & snow sliders, this will continue as the new snow falls.
Evidence is still visible of the large natural avalanche cycle from earlier in the week triggered by the high freezing levels and strong sun.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 5-15cm of snow recently buried variable surfaces, including a breakable crust, widespread surface hoar, and sastrugi in the Alpine.
Lurking below this is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) 50-80cm down. Feb 16 is another PWL (facets/crust/surface hoar) down 30-40cms. Both of these layers are reactive to human triggering, and are present/reactive in lesser traveled areas within the park (ie Bostock Pass).
Weather Summary
A storm system arrives Saturday morning, bringing warm temps, heavy snowfall and strong winds.
Tonight Cloudy with nil precip, Alpine low -7°C. Southwest ridge winds 25km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1100m
Sat Snow 10-15cm. Alp high -4°C. SW wind 30 gusting 65km/h. FZL 1500m
Sun Heavy snow. 25-30cm. Alp high -4°C. Ridge wind SW 25 gusting 75km/h. FZL 1500m
Mon Mix of sun/cloud. SW wind 15 gusting 40km/hr. FZL 900m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers and result in very large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Incoming storms will bring moderate to heavy precip with strong winds. This will build a storm slab that will be most reactive in areas with wind transport. Storm slab depths will build throughout the weekend and we will see natural avalanche activity!
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Buried persistent weak layer (PWL) 's exist in the upper and mid snowpack. Warm temps promoted the settling of a cohesive slab on top of this layer of suncrust/facets/surface hoar. This layer is still producing results in snowpack tests and sporadic avalanches in neighbouring operations
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5