Avalanche Forecast
Regions: North Columbia.
Overhead hazards such as cornice failures and wet loose avalanches on large alpine slopes will be the primary concern on Sunday. Pay attention to what's above your head and back off of slopes if the snow surface becomes moist.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
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SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature 0 / Above freezing layer of air 1500-2000m.
SUNDAY: Sunny with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 3 / Freezing level 2000 m.
MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -2 / Freezing level 1500 m.
TUESDAY: Sunny / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -1 / Freezing level 1600 m.
Avalanche Summary
Naturally triggered wet loose avalanches were reported up to size 2 on solar aspects in the alpine on Friday.Â
Rapidly rising freezing levels and sunny skies are expected to elevate the avalanche hazard through the weekend.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm. of recent convective snow and moderate westerly winds have formed fresh wind slabs below alpine ridgetops. Sunny skies are forming sun crusts on solar aspects which are breaking down during the heat of the day and increasing the likelihood for wet loose avalanches. Dry snow still exists on north aspects at upper elevations. Large cornices loom over alpine ridgetops.
Persistent weak layers of surface hoar, crusts, and/or facets 80-120 cm. down have recently been unreactive and no recent avalanches have been reported on these layers.Â
Big warm ups can awaken dormant weak layers resulting in large avalanches. Steep, rocky, convex terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack are examples of places where triggering these layers are more likely.
Sunshine and warm temperatures often cause large cornice failures which are hazardous on their own and can also trigger large avalanches on deeper weak layers that the weight of a single rider would not trigger.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
Avalanche Problems
Cornices
Rapidly rising freezing levels and sunny skies significantly increase the likelihood of cornice failures which are hazardous on their own and can also trigger large avalanches on deeper weak layers that the weight of a single rider would not trigger. Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Wet
Naturally triggered wet loose avalanches are possible, especially on steep solar aspects in the alpine.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Recent convective flurries in parts of the region, solar radiation, and light to moderate winds may have formed reactive slabs in isolated alpine locations. Steep, convex slopes below alpine ridgetops are the most likely places to trigger these slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2