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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2024–Feb 27th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Human triggering remains likely, maintain conservative terrain choices.

The best conditions can be found in sheltered terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday avalanche control produced numerous avalanches up to size 3.5, showing wide propagations likely failing on the Feb 3rd crust. A natural avalanche cycle earlier in the storm saw several large avalanches running full path from the steep terrain of Mt. Tupper and Mt. MacDonald.

Snowpack Summary

50-60cm of new snow has given a good refresh to surface conditions, southerly winds during the storm formed deeper deposits on leeward features. Below this thin sun crusts were buried on solar slopes and down 70-100cm is the robust Feb 3rd crust (which is widespread below 2500m).

The mid to lower snowpack is well settled, except in isolated areas of the alpine where an unusually thin & faceted snowpack exists.

Weather Summary

On Tuesday we will see a drying trend before the next storm arrives early on Wednesday bringing another round of heavy snowfall and strong winds.

Tues: Sun & cloud with isolated flurries - trace of new snow, light SW winds, low -23°C, freezing level (FZL) at valley bottom.

Wed: Stormy, snow - 30cm, strong SW winds, low -14°C, FZL 1100m.

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries up to 10cm, strong W winds, low -12°C, FZL 700m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

50-60cm of new snow has formed a cohesive storm slab, this was accompanied by strong winds so expect deeper and more reactive slabs on wind loaded terrain features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches initiating within the storm snow may step down to the Feb 3rd melt freeze crust, if they do the crust will promote wider propagation and produce much larger and more destructive avalanches running fast and far on the crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3