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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 30th, 2017–Mar 31st, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Stability will deteriorate quickly when the sun comes out so be aware of overhead terrain and the aspect. Early starts and finishes are key. Good skiing is being found on northern aspects!

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Friday looks like a carbon copy of Thursday with a mix of sun and cloud, generally light NW winds and freezing levels around 2200m.  Important to note that when the sun comes out the solar radiation is intense and the stablity on the solar aspects will deteriorate quickly.  Keep an eye on the weather and overhead terrain as you travel.

Avalanche Summary

Some loose sluffing up to sz 1.5 out of steep solar terrain when the sun came out but otherwise, no new natural activity was observed.

Snowpack Summary

Convective squalls continue to give us 5-10cm/day but these amount can vary by the drainage and also taper rapidly at lower elevations. Windslabs are being observed in Alpine areas along ridgelines and in open terrain. These slabs are 20-30cm thick and are reactive to a skiers weight. At treeline the windslab are very isolated and more stubborn to trigger. Moist snow was observed on Solar aspects up to 2600m and on all aspects below 2100m.  Expect to encounter crusts in the upper snowpack on all aspects at lower elevations and on solar aspects up to 2600m. Despite no recent avalanche activity on the deeper weak layers, we consider the consequences of a large avalanche before committing to a slope.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are present in the Alpine much more isolated at treeline. Though found on all aspects watch for thicker slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain such as N and E aspects.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are more fragile during sunny or warm periods. A cornice failure could trigger a significant slab on underlying slopes.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger deep slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Due to the nature of the snowpack, forecasters still have very little confidence in larger terrain features, particularly in the Alpine. Full depth avalanches that could reach the end of run out zones are still possible. If it hasnt slid, avoid it.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4