Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 23rd, 2015 9:31AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The forecast is uncertain at this point. New snow load and freezing levels are to be watched closely. The ratings reflect this uncertainty.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The snow has apparently missed us. Yesterday's predicted storm has been downgraded to only 9cm's. The good news is that freezing levels are not expected to rise as high as first thought. 1500m temps should be around zero degrees for most of tomorrow. The winds are still expected to haul out of the west at 3000m, but at ridge top they will be only moderate (30km/h).

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were seen today

Snowpack Summary

Today's trip went to Commonwealth ridge. At treeline, there was 94cm of snow with the Dec 13th crust down 25cm. There was no surface hoar found at this location, however it is out there in specific areas. Tests gave mostly moderate results indicating the potential for avalanches on the Dec 13 layer. The deeper basal layers are there, but seem to be hanging in there in terms of improving strength. Near the end of the day winds picked up and there was even some light rain at lower elevations.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

This layer is proving to be spotty. Parties have reported large settlements in some areas, but nothing in others. Be diligent in looking for it as it may be a significant concern.

Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

There is ongoing faceting above and below this crust. This makes for a touchy and somewhat unpredictable avalanche problem.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

While not a huge concern at the moment, this layer still has potential for big avalanches. It is uncertain how it will behave with a new storm load.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 24th, 2015 2:00PM