Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Stevens Pass.
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Avalanche danger should be expected to become dangerous with daytime warming. Wet loose avalanches are likely to run far, and pack a punch. Wind slabs are large, and may still be reactive at upper elevations. Continuously evaluate conditions as you travel, as they are likely to change quickly during the day. Plan to travel with a conservative mindset on Friday.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
A spring storm on a west to northwest flow gave us about a foot of new snow on the pass overnight Wednesday. Another few inches are expected overnight into Friday. On Thursday, a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle occurred on many slopes during the day, the exception being high elevation northwest to northeast facing terrain. The recent snow is sitting on crusts with underlying weak, wet snow. The heavy, dense snow entrained the entire 12" of storm snow, shaking trees, and left quite a number of large debris piles in their wake. Morning control at SPMR pulled out a number of slabs as well, some large enough to injure, bury, or kill a person. These were on a variety of aspects, but above 5,000ft. On Friday, the avalanche danger will rise quickly with daytime warming, so be prepared to evaluate changing conditions on the fly. Strong April sun and even warmer temperatures than Thursday will once again create dangerous wet loose avalanches. If you venture onto shaded aspects in the alpine, you may find a colder, winter-like upper snowpack. The April 5th interface is likely to be found 16" to 24" below the surface, and may still harbor cold winter-like layers.
An ongoing "shed cycle" continues...each time we get more snow, some of it comes down. Factor in a good margin for error as hard to predict events like cornice fall, glide avalanches, icefall, and rockfall may occur sporadically.Â
Large (D1.5) loose wet avalanches ran naturally off the southeast aspects of Lichtenberg Mountain on Thursday. Matt Primomo photo.
Snowpack Discussion
April 9th, 2019
Spring Conditions
The snowpack and weather have shifted solidly to spring-like conditions. A major warm-up started in mid-March with a prolonged period of strong sun and warm temperatures. This created a major difference between the snowpack on sunny slopes and that on shaded aspects. More recently, warm, wet, and sometimes weak spring storms have brought more rain than snow. The bulk of the precipitation with these storms focused on the southern forecast zones. Even so, mid-elevation rain established a dramatic snow line (about 4-4,500ft) below which the snowpack is minimal to non-existent in most zones. Going into the second week in April, intense snow and wind drove a prolonged period of High danger at Mt Hood.
A crown of a very large avalanche (D3+) above Mt. Hood Meadows resort. 04/08/2019. Photo Credit: Peter Moore.
Challenging Weather Forecasts
The Cascades have been experiencing unsettled spring weather with rain to many low and mid-elevation slopes and snow at upper elevations. Spring weather forecasts in the Cascades are notoriously challenging. With these storms, the weather models have been inconsistent and the accuracy has been limited to 12-24 hours, at best. A trend has been significant precipitation amounts for the Mount Hood area and other south-central Cascade volcanoes.Â
Very bare southeast aspects of Rock Mtn/Nason Ridge. April 2nd. Photo: Josh Hirshberg
Shrinking Snowpack
From the peak height of snow in mid to late February through early April, mountain weather stations in the 4,000-5,000ft range showed an average of 27% decrease in height of snow. The percentage decrease ranged from 22-29%. This year's spring snowmelt is much earlier than normal. If you’re traveling in the mountains, the loss of snow coverage is most noticeable on southerly, sun-exposed slopes and below 4,000ft. On northerly aspects and slopes above 5,500ft, the snowpack has seen less dramatic changes and has even maintained some dry layers. On upper elevation shaded slopes there’s still potential for large wet slab avalanches with prolonged warm temperatures or high elevation rain events.
A natural loose wet avalanche (D1), Lichtenberg Mtn, N, 4,850ft. 4/7/2019. Photo: Will Govus
Spring avalanche considerations
As you head into the mountains there are a few questions to ask yourself common to spring avalanche conditions:
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Can you trigger avalanches due to new snow?
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If so, would they be storm slabs or wind slabs? And where?
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Can you trigger avalanches due to warming or rain?
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Will recent snow be warmed enough to result in loose wet avalanches?
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Will these avalanches be predictable point releases or more destructive wet slabs or gouging loose wet avalanches?
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What are the recent high and low temperatures and the forecasted temperatures during the time you’ll be in the mountains?
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How is the cloud cover contributing to the melting or freezing of surface snow? Did clear skies allow for a sufficient overnight freeze? Will the sun be strong enough to weaken surface layers?
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Debris from a natural loose wet avalanche (D2), Lichtenberg Mtn, SW, 5,000ft. 4/7/2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg
Other Considerations
In addition to daily avalanche hazard, the early snowmelt has created other travel considerations. Some roads and lower elevation slopes may not have enough continuous snow coverage for travel on snow machines. Holes melted around rocks, trees, and creeks could create a fall hazard. When nighttime temperatures and cloud cover allow for surface freezes, bring appropriate equipment to mitigate slip and fall hazard on steep slopes.
The last daily avalanche forecast for all zones will be issued for April 14th. Statewide mountain weather forecast and weekly avalanche condition advisories will continue through May. The weather station data is available year round. Keep checking the advisories and help us out by submitting observations when you are in the mountains.
Glide avalanches and holes opening up in rocky terrain on an east aspect of Mount Herman. 4/3/19 Photo: Andrew Kiefer
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
It may not take long for these to begin happening on Friday. The strong spring sun will quickly turn the surface into wet, sticky snow that can easily grow into powerful loose wet avalanches on steep slopes. Rollerballs and pinwheels are good signs that loose wet avalanches may follow. These slides may run far, entraining all of the recent storm snow, and they may pack a punch. Don't put yourself into a situation with high consequences, such as risk of being carried into trees, gullies, and over cliffs. The wet snow is heavy enough that you won't want to get carried at all in these slides. Be careful of going underneath any steep slopes, as they may hit you from above.
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Thickly drifted wind slabs were observed on Thursday. These may become more well bonded with time on Friday, but if you do get a wind slab to release it could be large. Pay attention to quickly changing conditions as you gain elevation, and look for firm slabs near wind exposed features. These will be more reactive and larger the higher up you go, and may be localized to leeward slopes and the tops of ridges. Cornices just got a quick growth spurt, and be alert to areas of deeper drifts where you feel stiffer snow at upper elevations. Steer around obvious drifts and slopes over 35 degrees and on unsupported or convex features.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1