Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 27th, 2019–Feb 28th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

Fresh wind slabs are sitting on top of buried wind slabs that are sitting on facets (weak, sugary snow). The fresh wind slabs are touchy and the buried wind slabs may remain reactive to human triggers longer than is typical.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness / Light, southerly winds / Alpine low -10.THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries / Light, southwesterly winds / Alpine high -9.FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light, westerly winds / Alpine high -15.SATURDAY: Sunny / Light, northeasterly winds / Alpine high -18.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, numerous natural wind slab avalanches up to size 2 and several human triggered size 1s were reported on a variety of aspects in the alpine. On Saturday there was a report of a skier triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche 30-50 cm deep on a northeast aspect in the Dogtooth range. This person was seriously injured after being swept over a 30 m cliff and carried by the avalanche for a total of 650 m. On Feb. 20th. there was a report of a human triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche in the Gorman Lake area. There is a great MIN report detailing this avalanche here.During the past week there have been numerous reports of persistent slab avalanches. These avalanches are becoming fewer and further between, but they are still being triggered by people and are large enough to have high consequences.

Snowpack Summary

Strong northeasterly ridge-top winds have created fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. Additionally, there are buried wind slabs on a variety of aspects that are sitting on facets (sugary snow) which may cause them to remain reactive to human triggers longer than what is typical for a wind slab problem.Lower down there are two layers of surface hoar (weak, feathery crystals) that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 80 cm deep and are most prominent at treeline and below. The surface hoar may sit on a crust on south facing slopes in specific locations which is a dangerous combination.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that sit on a crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. See the Forecaster Blog here for more information on this problem.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs are sitting on top of buried wind slabs that are sitting on facets (weak, sugary snow). The fresh wind slabs are touchy and the buried wind slabs may remain reactive to human triggers longer than is typical.
Steep and rocky terrain are likely places to trigger buried wind slabs.Avoid slopes that sound hollow or drum-like.Avoid freshly wind-loaded features, especially near ridge crests and in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Two weak layers of surface hoar are buried between 30 and 70 cm down in the snowpack. These layers are slow to change and have created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario in the snowpack.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled terrain with low consequence.Avoid steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes at and below treeline.Avoid low elevation cut-blocks where this layer is well preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5