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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2019–Feb 1st, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

We are expecting significant snow and wind by tomorrow afternoon.  Watch for rapid hazard changes if the amount of snow/timing varies from the forecast.

Confidence

- Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Flurries will change to real snow by late afternoon tomorrow. Amounts vary, but we're hoping for 20-30 by saturday morning. True to form, the winds will accompany the incoming snow. Winds of about 40km (treeline) from the SW are the expected numbers. The temps will remain average (around-8), but fall off the chart by Sunday. Lows are expected to be around -30 by sunday night.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Wide spread wind effect in the alpine. Treeline is mostly broken down, facetted surface slabs with facets/depth hoar below. There are pockets of harder and likely reactive windslabs kicking around the more exposed areas, but for the most part the snowpack is improving from a hazard perspective despite getting weaker overall... a little counter intuitive. Valley bottoms are still on the skimpy side for coverage, but the upside is the lack of any avalanche problem.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

In areas with greater than 120cm, this layer is less concerning. Conversely, the areas with less than 100cm (and there are many), are still hard to trust. Seek out the deeper snow!
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

The alpine slabs are thick and widespread. Don't underestimate large triggers and thin areas as likely trigger points.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2