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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2014–Mar 15th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Olympics.

Avalanche danger should increase during the day on Saturday. Watch for sensitive wind slab on lee easterly aspects formed on Friday and for new shallow storm slab later Saturday afternoon. Wet loose concerns should be the primary concern at lower and mid elevations with a transition to light rain during the day. The avalanche danger should increase further Saturday night. 

Detailed Forecast

A warm front should stay draped over the US/Canadian border Saturday, producing moderate precipitation at rapidly increasing snow levels for the Olympics on Saturday. 

Loose wet avalanches will be the primary concern on Saturday as a transition to rain loads new snowfall received on Friday or early Saturday in the Olympics. Wet loose avalanches are becoming more likely if you see pinwheels or initial small natural wet loose releases. Moderate westerly winds on Friday may have built sensitive wind slab on lee easterly aspects in this region near and above treeline. Shallow new storm slab that layers denser snow on top of less dense snow from Saturday morning may be concern at higher elevations by Saturday afternoon. Use caution on Saturday and expect increasing avalanche danger during the day.  

Also due to the rapid warming Saturday, expect cornices to be sensitive Saturday and give them a wide berth. 

Snowpack Discussion

Over the past month two major storm cycles moved across the Pacific Northwest. The most recent week long storm cycle occurred in early March and wound down last Sunday. This storm cycle produced similar water equivalents as the February cycle; about 4 inches of water and 2 feet of snow at Hurricane Ridge. This cycle was warmer and featured mainly wet snow and rain leading to several natural avalanche cycles during the first week of March. Average freezing levels have been roughly 2000-3000 feet higher thus far in March versus February! 

NWAC observers Tyler and Katie Reid last Friday at Hurricane reported wet and saturated upper snow pack layers and numerous wet loose avalanches to size 2. Warming effects had penetrated quite deeply into upper snowpack layers. Here is a video from Tyler and Katy at Hurricane from last Friday. Warm wet weather last weekend caused wet snow conditions and many wet loose avalanches at Hurricane with several cornice collapses as well as reported by NWAC observer Katy Reid on Sunday.

Several large and destructive wet slab avalanches released down to old facet/crust combo from earlier this winter naturally and with explosives early last week over the west slopes of the Cascades. It is unknown if any avalanches this large occurred in the Olympics. 

A NPS ranger reported a few inches of new snow over a firm crust late Friday morning at Hurricane Ridge.  A few more inches of snow likely accumulated during the day down to around 4000 feet with some wind transported snow likely near treeline due to moderate westerly winds.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1