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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Weather models are showing variable snowfall amounts for Friday morning. Assess local accumulated amounts and employ a conservative approach with route selection. Expect rapid changes with elevation due to the snow-rain line during the recent storm.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall in the south of the region, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation trace to 5 cm, light south winds, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level below valley bottom.SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation trace to 5 cm, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -9 C, freezing level below valley bottom.SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, light west winds, alpine temperature -9 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

There were reports of large avalanches in the north of the region, corresponding with the storm from Monday to Wednesday. There were no recent reports for the south of the region.We often have a hard time getting reports of avalanche activity from this region, so if you see anything, please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network! (MIN). Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Expect fresh storms slabs to have formed with around 20 cm of new snow and possibly more for the south of the region on Thursday night into Friday. The snow fell with strong southwest winds, so the deepest and touchiest deposits will be in lee terrain features. These will sit on lingering hard wind slabs from last weekend. Below around treeline elevations, expect rain to have made some of the recent snow soggy, before freezing into a melt-freeze crust.Buried under recent storm snow, you may find a few weak layers in sheltered areas comprising of feathery surface hoar crystals and/or sugary faceted snow. The upper layer was buried around December 31 and is about 20 cm deep. The next layer may have been buried around December 22 and is likely 30-50 cm deep. The lower one was buried in early-December and is now approximately 80-120 cm deep. Deeper in the snowpack, there are several crusts including an early-season crust with weak faceted snow near the bottom of the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent snowfall may not bond well to the underlying snowpack. Expect the deepest deposits in lee terrain features near ridges, as the snow fell with strong southwest winds.
If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5