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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 5th, 2014–Mar 6th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The steady snowfall, warming, and winds have gradually bumped the danger up. Keep your head up and avoid overhead hazards.

Weather Forecast

The main brunt of the storm will likely track south of Rogers Pass, but we'll still see some action. Forecasted snowfall is 10-15cm today, 5-10cm tonight, with freezing levels rising to 1300m and winds remaining moderate to strong from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

25-35cm of heavy snow over light snow has created a touchy soft slab. This has buried a suncrust on S and W aspects, and likely surface hoar in sheltered below tree-line areas. In the alpine and tree-line, strong N and E winds from the weekend created wind slabs which were also buried. The Jan 28/Feb 10 PWL is down 1-1.4m under a cohesive slab.

Avalanche Summary

A natural cycle occurred yesterday and overnight as the temperatures and winds picked up. Avalanches up to size 3 were running from steep gully features on all aspects in the alpine, especially east of Rogers Pass in the highway corridor. Several of the slides ran to the end of their path, deep down in the valley.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Field teams found touchy soft slabs in open alpine and tree-line lee features yesterday. These slabs appeared to be failing within the new snow, but some were popping very easily off the suncrust on solar aspects.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Fast-moving sluffs triggered by riders continue to be reported. These sluffs have been gaining mass in steep terrain, and could easily bowl you or your buddies over.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Lingering deep (1-1.4m) in the snowpack, the surface hoar/facet/crust sandwich continues to produce hard, sudden results in tests. If a large enough trigger gets this layer to fail, avalanches will be very large.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4