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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 8th, 2014–Dec 11th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Warming will cause some deterioration in both the snowpack and travel conditions especially for Wednesday. Below treeline travel off of trails is not recommended due to poor coverage.

Weather Forecast

The freezing level is expected to continue rising Tuesday reaching  near mountain top with about 10mm of rain forecast. Freezing levels look to return to Little Prairie Wed and hopefully the 10mm of precip forecast for Wed night arrives as snow.

Snowpack Summary

Suncrusts forming steep South slopes. Wind effect found in open areas treeline and above. Mid-Nov facets sit on 30cm of crusts formed early in November at treeline and above. Below 2200m, rain at the start of the storm on Nov 26 created a crust over the facets or melted them. The slab above these layers grows with elevation from 30 to 100 cm.

Avalanche Summary

There is some small solar activity occurring on steep solar slopes especially around black bodies. It is easy to trigger wind slabs in specific locations. We continue to find further evidence of the widespread cycle on November 28 but have seen no recent activity on these layers.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin windslabs can now be found at treeline. This slabs are thin and very localized and are easy to stumble into as they appear mid slope in front of you. With the warmer temps expected these slabs may become more sensitive before they improve.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

These slabs taper radically with elevation and are sitting on a thick crust. Large slides resulted from failures in the recent storm snow over the crust that extends to around 2300m. These slabs may become easier to trigger with the expected heating.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

At high elevations cooler temps have only allowed thin crusts to form above the weak November Facets which may remain a possibility for triggering for some time. Use caution TL and above especially in thin or variable areas.
Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3