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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2012–Jan 31st, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Tuesday and Wednesday: Light to moderate westerly winds and short-lived disturbances delivering light amounts of snow each day, especially on the west (upslope) side of the ranges. Freezing level should remain near valley bottoms. Thursday: Moderate snowfall possible as a strong frontal system makes it way inland.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations include some natural avalanche activity in the Hankin area on Sunday on North and East aspects at treeline and alpine elevations. Slabs ranged in thickness from 20cm to 50cm and the avalanches were not running very far.

Snowpack Summary

I suspect pockets of wind slab behind ridges & ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. I also suspect storm slabs on steeper terrain, unsupported slopes, or convex rolls. Deeper in the snowpack is a layer of facets (sugary snow) which formed during the cold mid-January drought. The combination of newer, warmer, cohesive snow above a thin, weak, rotten snowpack is a bad combination.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are likely behind ridges and terrain breaks. They could be quite large and may require another day or two to stabilize

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Storm Slabs

A weak layer in the snowpack was covered by the recent storm snow. It may take some time before it gains strength. Watch steep slopes, convex rolls, and unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5