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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2016–Jan 14th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

It sounds like the surface hoar buried in wind loaded features might be starting to wake up.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods and intermittent flurries bring up to 3cm through the day. Winds will be light from the southwest with a treeline temperature of -15C. Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods, no precipitation expected, light southeast winds and a temperature of -15C at 1500m. Saturday: Light snowfall with 3-5cm expected, light to moderate southeasterly winds and temperatures between -7 to -15 at treeline.

Avalanche Summary

It sounds there has been some surprisingly large skier remote and ski cut releases in wind loaded features.  These avalanche have apparently been failing on one of the two buried layers of surface hoar we are concerned with.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow overlies a crust on steep solar aspects, or a layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations. Moderate to strong southwest through south east winds have been loading lee features. 10 to 15 cm below this is a second buried weak layer again consisting of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine or well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. Deeper still, the mid and lower snowpack is generally faceted.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin wind slabs may be sensitive to rider triggering in steep and unsupported lee and cross-loaded terrain.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3