Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to whether buried persistent weak layers become active, triggering avalanches, with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Southwest flow takes aim at the province this weekend delivering plenty of precipitation and warm temperatures.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, 3 to 6 cm of light density snow expected.

SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning at valley bottom rising to about 700 m, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, 3 to 6 cm of snow expected during the day with another 5 to 10 cm Saturday night.

SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning near valley bottom rising to about 1500 m, strong southwest wind, 5 to 10 cm of snow possible at upper elevations with rain in the valleys. 10 to 20 cm of snow is expected at upper elevations Sunday night.

MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1500 m and holding there throughout the day, strong southwest wind, 10 to 20 cm of snow at upper elevations with heavy rain in the valleys.

On Friday storm slabs began to form and were sensitive to human triggering, this MIN from Friday is a great example of that activity.

In the neighbouring Cariboo region on Wednesday a surprisingly large human triggered avalanche was reported on a northwest facing feature at treeline. A similarly sized skier triggered avalanche was also reported near Revelstoke Wednesday on a steep west facing slope around 1600 m. These are great examples of the strange conditions created by reverse wind loading and may be a portent of things to come as the weekend trends warm and stormy.  

The second week of February produced fewer persistent slab avalanches than the first week of February. But, the late January persistent weak layer is still showing signs of instability and a conservative approach is critical as this storm begins to add weight to it. This old MIN report from the Gorge is a helpful example of the lower elevation slopes where the surface hoar has been preserved and may reactivate this weekend.

Southwest flow has started pushing some more serious precipitation our way. As of Friday afternoon the first wave of the storm has produced about 25 cm up the Adams river, 20 cm around Mica and 25 cm or so near Revelstoke. There is now 20 to 50 cm of snow resting on an untested potpourri of weak layers including sugary facets, feathery surface hoar, and wind-affected snow that formed as a result of the cold, dry and windy drought period.

We've now got 70 to 100 cm of snow above the late January persistent weak layer which is composed of surface hoar. This layer is most prevalent at treeline and in "treeline-like" features such as cutblocks. On steep south-facing terrain, this layer may consist of facets on a sun crust, which has produced very large low probability/high consequence avalanches.

• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.