Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

The dry conditions and sunny skies are coming to an end as a series of pacific frontal systems hit the coast and bring cloudy skies and precipitation into the weekend. Wednesday will be fairly dry with a mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop winds will be light-moderate from the West and freezing levels hover around 1500-1700 m. Thursday will bring light snow amounts 5-10 cm. Ridgetop winds will blow strong from the SW and freezing levels will rise to 1800 m. Friday will remain cloudy with light precipitation and freezing levels 2000-2500 m.

On Monday, several natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported. Most of these initiated from northerly aspects 2000-2500 m in elevation. Numerous explosive controlled slab avalanches were also initiated up to size 2.There is a still a concern for avalanches to step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in larger persistent slab avalanches, especially in shallower snowpack areas.

At higher elevations, new snow sits over a plethora of surfaces including moist snow, crusts, wind affected surfaces, and/or old wind slabs which may still be reactive to rider triggers. Rain has soaked the upper snowpack to around treeline elevation forming a spring-like, melt-freeze crust. In the alpine, strong winds have redistributed the new snow into wind slabs in leeward terrain features. Prior to the storm, 10-30cm of snow was sitting over a weak facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-February. This interface has not been as reactive in the Purcell's  like it has in neighboring regions; however, it does exist and should remain on your radar. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer can be found around 1m below the surface in deeper snowpack areas. The mid-January surface hoar can be found below that. These layers have gained significant strength and have been dormant for several weeks.